Economic growth, tourism, and economic policy uncertainty in the main tourist destinations (1998-2018)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18381/eq.v21i1.7315Abstract
Objective: to study the relationship among tourism demand and economic growth, real exchange rate, and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in Australia, China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, the United States, and the United Kingdom.Methodology: cross-section dependence, unit root, and cointegration tests were applied. The long-term model was estimated according to the Panel-Corrected Standard Error (PCSE), Feasible Generalised Least Squares (FGLS), and Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS).Results: the results show a positive relationship between economic growth and the real exchange rate concerning tourism demand. In the long term, the causality relationship is from uncertainty, exchange rate, and GDP to tourism. The feedback hypothesis is validated.Limitations: availability of data.Originality: it studies the joint influence of economic growth and the EPU on demand for tourism in the countries of the world’s leading destinations for international tourism according to international tourist income.Conclusions: tourism will drive general economic growth and, correspondingly, investment in other sectors of the economy will also influence an increase in tourism.Downloads
References
Aloui, C., Hamida, H. B., & Hkiri, B. (2021). Democratic transition, political risk, economic instability, and tourist inflows: The case of Tunisia. Tourism Economics, 27(5), 1157–1165. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816620913372
Anagnostou, A., Ekonomou, G., & Kallioras, D. (2021). The nexus of tourism spending with economic performance: A panel data analysis for the Eurozone area. Geographica Pannonica, 25(1), 53–62. https://doi.org/10.5937/gp25-29541
Aparicio, J., & Márquez, J. (2005). Diagnóstico y especificación de modelos panel en Stata 8.0. México: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas. División de Estudios Políticos.
Aratuo, D. N., & Etienne, X. L. (2019). Industry level analysis of tourism-economic growth in the United States. Tourism Management, 70, 333–340. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2018.09.004
Badulescu, A., Badulescu, D., Simut, R. (2018). The complex relationship between international tourism demand and economic growth: An analysis on central and eastern European economies. Amfiteatru economic, 20(Special 12), 935-950. https://doi.org/10.24818/ea/2018/s12/935
Bailey, D., & Katz, J. N. (2011). Implementing panel-corrected standard errors in R: The PCSE Package. Journal of Statistical Software, 42(Code Snippet 1). https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v042.c01
Baltagi, B. H., & Pesaran, M. H. (2007). Heterogeneity and cross section dependence in panel data models: theory and applications introduction. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 229–232. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.955
Beck, N., & Katz, J. N. (1995). What to do (and not to do) with time series cross-section data. American Political Science Review, 89(3), 634–647. https://doi.org/10.2307/2082979
Çaglayan, E., Sak, N., & Karymshakov, K. (2012). Relationship between tourism and economic growth: A panel Granger causality approach. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 2(5), 591–602. https://archive.aessweb.com/index.php/5002/article/view/783/1232
Chrid, N., Saafi, S., & Chakroun, M. (2021). Export upgrading and economic growth: A panel cointegration and causality analysis. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 12(2), 811–841. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13132-020-00640-6
De Hoyos, R. E., & Sarafidis, V. (2006). Testing for cross-sectional dependence in panel-data models. The Stata Journal, 6(4), 482–496. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867x0600600403
Dogru, T., & Bulut, U. (2018). Is tourism an engine for economic recovery? Theory and empirical evidence. Tourism Management, 67, 425–434. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2017.06.014
Dumitrescu, E.-I., & Hurlin, C. (2012). Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels. Economic Modelling, 29(4), 1450–1460. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.02.014
Fahimi, A., Akadiri, S. S., Seraj, M., & Akadiri, A. C. (2018). Testing the role of tourism and human capital development in economic growth. A panel causality study of micro states. Tourism Management Perspectives, 28, 62–70. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.2018.08.004
Fletcher, J., Wanhill, S. Fyall, A., & Gilbert, D. (2017). Tourism: Principles and practice (6th ed.). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education.
García Santana, I. S. (2020). Convergencia y crecimiento económico. Un análisis en datos panel para México (1940-2018). Tiempo Económico, 15(45), 53–71. http://tiempoeconomico.azc.uam.mx/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/45te4.pdf
Gholipour, H. F., Nunkoo, R., Foroughi, B., & Daronkola, H. K. (2022). Economic policy uncertainty, consumer confidence in major economies and outbound tourism to African countries. Tourism Economics, 28(4), 979–994. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816620985382
Gómez, M., & Rodríguez, J. C. (2020). The ecological footprint and Kuznets environmental curve in the USMCA countries: A method of moments quantile regression analysis. Energies, 13(24), 6650. https://doi.org/10.3390/en13246650
Gounder, R. (2022). Tourism-led and economic-driven nexus in Mauritius: Spillovers and inclusive development policies in the case of an African nation. Tourism Economics, 28(4), 1040–1058. https://doi.org/10.1177/13548166211013201
Gozgor, G., & Ongan, S. (2017). Economic policy uncertainty and tourism demand: Empirical evidence from the USA: Domestic tourism demand and the EPU in the USA. International Journal of Tourism Research, 19(1), 99–106. https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.2089
Granger, C. W. J. (1988). Some recent development in a concept of causality. Journal of Econometrics, 39(1–2), 199–211. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(88)90045-0
Gričar, S., Bojnec, Š., Karadžić, V., & Backović Vulić, T. (2021). Tourism-led economic growth in Montenegro and Slovenia. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 34(1), 3401–3420. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677x.2021.1875858
Haller, A.-P., Butnaru, G. I., Hârșan, G.-D. T., & Ştefănică, M. (2021). The relationship between tourism and economic growth in the EU-28. Is there a tendency towards convergence? Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 34(1), 1121–1145. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677x.2020.1819852
Hristov Stančić, B., Đorđević, A., Kovačević, I., & Zečević, B. (2022). Tourism-led economic growth hypothesis - an empirical investigation for Serbia. TEME, 251. https://doi.org/10.22190/teme210217014h
Hurtado, D. (2018). Apertura comercial y desindustrialización: un análisis de panel para América del Sur. INNOVA Research Journal, 3(8.1), 113–126. https://doi.org/10.33890/innova.v3.n8.1.2018.774
Işık, C., Sirakaya-Turk, E., & Ongan, S. (2020). Testing the efficacy of the economic policy uncertainty index on tourism demand in USMCA: Theory and evidence. Tourism Economics, 26(8), 1344–1357. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816619888346
Keynes J. M. (1936). The general theory of employment, interest and money. New York: Harcourt Brace.
Khoshnevis Yazdi, S., & Khanalizadeh, B. (2017). Tourism demand: a panel data approach. Current Issues in Tourism, 20(8), 787–800. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2016.1170772
Martins, L. F., Gan, Y., & Ferreira-Lopes, A. (2017). An empirical analysis of the influence of macroeconomic determinants on World tourism demand. Tourism Management, 61, 248–260. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2017.01.008
Mérida, A., & Golpe, A. A. (2016). Tourism-led growth revisited for Spain: Causality, business cycles and structural breaks. International Journal of Tourism Research, 18(1), 39–51.https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.2031
Navarro-Chávez, J. C. L., Gómez, M., & Marín-Leyva, R. A. (2022). Economic policy uncertainty and tourism demand of OECD countries in Mexico. Tourism Analysis, 27(3), 317–330. https://doi.org/10.3727/108354222x16557883993261
Netto, G. P., & Lohmann, A. (2016). Tourism theory: Concepts, models and system. 2 ed. Wallingford, UK: CABI.
Ongan, S. & Gozgor, G. (2018). Tourism demand analysis: The impact of the economic policy uncertainty on the arrival of Japanese tourists to the USA. International Journal of Tourism Research, 20 (3), 308-316. https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.2182
Parks, R. W. (1967). Efficient estimation of a system of regression equations when disturbances are both serially and contemporaneously correlated. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 62(318), 500. https://doi.org/10.2307/2283977
Pegkas, P. (2020). Interrelationships between tourism, energy, environment and economic growth in Greece. Anatolia, 31(4), 565–576. https://doi.org/10.1080/13032917.2020.1795893
Persyn, D., & Westerlund, J. (2008). Error-correction–based cointegration tests for panel data. The Stata Journal, 8(2), 232–241. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867x0800800205
Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.572504
Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics (Chichester, England), 22(2), 265–312. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.951
Phillips, P. C. B., & Moon, H. R. (1999). Linear regression limit theory for nonstationary panel data. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 67(5), 1057–1111. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0262.00070
Rasool, H., Maqbool, S., & Tarique, M. (2021). The relationship between tourism and economic growth among BRICS countries: a panel cointegration analysis. Future Business Journal, 7, 1. https://doi.org/10.1186/s43093-020-00048-3
Reed, W. R., & Ye, H. (2011). Which panel data estimator should I use? Applied Economics, 43(8), 985–1000. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840802600087
Rigol M., L. M. (2009). Conceptualización de la demanda turística. Ciencias Holguín, XV(1), 1–8. https://www.redalyc.org/pdf/1815/181517987002.pdf
Santana, G. (1940). Convergencia y crecimiento económico. Un análisis en datos panel para México (1940-2018). Tiempo Económico, 45, 53–71.
Sari-Hassoun, S. E., Adda, K. S., & Sebbane, A. H. (2021). Examining the connection among national tourism expenditure and economic growth in Algeria. Future Business Journal, 7(1), 14. https://doi.org/10.1186/s43093-
-00059-8
Sharma, C., & Khanna, R. (2023). Does global economic policy uncertainty drive tourism demand? A cross-country analysis. Journal of Policy Research in Tourism Leisure and Events, 15(1), 106–113. https://doi.org/10.1080/19407963.2021.1916510
Tugcu, C. T. (2014). Tourism and economic growth nexus revisited: A panel causality analysis for the case of the Mediterranean Region. Tourism Management, 42, 207–212. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2013.12.007
UNWTO (2020). Barómetro OMT del Turismo Mundial, mayo 2020 – Con especial enfoque en el impacto de la COVID-19. Madrid: World Tourism Organization.
UNWTO (2021). Panorama del turismo internacional. Edición 2020. Madrid: World Tourism Organization.
UNWTO (s.f.) Glossary of tourism terms. Madrid: World Tourism Organization. https://www.unwto.org/glossary-tourism-terms
Westerlund, J. (2007). Testing for error correction in panel data. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 69(6), 709–748. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2007.00477.x
Wijijayanti, T. (2021). Does tourism development matter for the economic growth of Southeast Asian countries? KnE Social Sciences. https://doi.org/10.18502/kss.v5i8.9391
Wu, T.-P., Wu, H.-C., Wang, C.-H., Wu, H., & Wu, Y.-Y. (2021). The effect of economic policy uncertainty on BRIC tourism. Anatolia, 32(3), 501–509. https://doi.org/10.1080/13032917.2021.1916550
Xu, Q.-H., Cai, Z.-W., & Fang, Y. (2016). Panel data models with cross-sectional dependence: a selective review. Applied Mathematics-A Journal of Chinese Universities, 31(2), 127–147. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11766-016-3441-9
Zhu, X., & He, Y. (2021). Does tourism promote economic growth in the ethnic areas of China? Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 57(2), 386–399. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496x.2019.1600503
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Los autores ceden a EconoQuantum, Revista de Economía y Finanzas, los derechos de publicación y difusión de su trabajo titulado “_________________________________________”, tanto en medios impresos como digitales.
