Crecimiento económico, turismo e incertidumbre de la política económica en los principales destinos turísticos (1998-2018)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18381/eq.v21i1.7315Resumen
Objetivo: este artículo estudia la relación entre la demanda turística y el crecimiento económico, el tipo de cambioreal y la incertidumbre de política económica (EPU, porsus siglas en inglés) en Australia, China, Francia, Alemania, Italia, Japón, España, Estados Unidos y el Reino Unido.Metodología: se aplicaron pruebas de dependencia transversal, de raíz unitaria y de cointegración. El modelo de largo plazo se estimó con los siguientes métodos: PCSE,FGLS y FMOLS.Resultados: los resultados muestran una relación positiva entre el crecimiento económico y el tipo de cambio real respecto a la demanda turística. En el largo plazo, la relación de causalidad es de la incertidumbre, el tipo de cambio y el PIB al turismo. Se valida la hipótesis de retroalimentación.Limitaciones: la disponibilidad de datos.Originalidad: estudia la influencia conjunta del crecimiento económico y la EPU sobre la demanda de turismo en lospaíses de los principales destinos mundiales de turismointernacional según los ingresos turísticos internacionales.Conclusiones: se sugiere que el turismo impulsará el crecimiento económico general, y de manera correspondiente la inversión en otros sectores de la economía también influirá en un aumento del turismo.Descargas
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