14 years later: The spread of drug crime in Mexico
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18381/eq.v11i2.2310Keywords:
Drug Crimes, Mexico, Spatial Econometrics, Panel DataAbstract
Over the past five years public security in Mexico started to become one of the first problems for civil society and authorities. Analysts have warned that insecurity is spreading to regions that were previously unaffected. Applying spatial econometrics techniques, this paper empirically investigates whether and how drug related crime in a given Mexican state spreads to its neighboring states. Using a panel data set for the 31 Mexican federal states and Mexico City over the period 1997-2010 the papers finds a positive and significant diffusion effect of crimes related to drugs after controlling for political and socio-economic characteristics of regions. These findings take into account the endogeneity inherent to the spatial autoregression implementing a 2SLS estimation procedure and are robust to the selection of the spatial lag weighting matrix. Furthermore, after controlling for drug enforcement in neighboring states to state i, the results show weak evidence for a deterrent effect. This implies that authorities’ deterrence measures in neighboring states to state i weakly reduce drug crimes in state i.Downloads
References
Andresen, Martin A. 2006. “Crime measures and the spatial analysis of criminal activity.” British Journal of Criminology 46(2):258–285.
Anselin, Luc and Anil K. Bera. 1998. “Spatial dependence in linear regression models with an introduction to spatial econometrics.” In Ullah, A. and Giles, D. E., editors, Handbook of Applied Economic Statistics, pp 237-289. Marcel Dekker, New York.
Astorga Almanza, Luis. 2007. “Seguridad, traficantes y militares: el poder y la sombra.” (Security, traffickers and soldiers: the power and the shadow) Mexico City, Editorial Tusquets.
Astorga, Almanza, Luis and David A. Shirk. 2010. “Drug Trafficking Organizations and Counter-Drug Strategies in the U.S.-Mexican Context.” USMEX Working Paper 10-01. Project:Mexico and the United States. Confronting the Twenty-First Century. Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies, The Mexico Institute of the Woodrow Wilson Center. El Colegio de la Frontera Norte and El Colegio de México.
Becker, Gary. 1968. “Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach.” Journal of Political Economy 76(2):169-217.
Benson, Bruce L., Kim Iljoong, and David W. Rasmussen. 1994. “Estimating Deterrence Effects: A Public Choice Perspective on the Economics of Crime Literature.” Southern Economic Journal, 61(1): 161-168.
Blonigen, Bruce.A., and Ronald B. Davies 2004. The effects of bilateral tax treaties on US FDI activity. International Tax and Public Finance 11 (5), 601-622.
Bode, Eckhardt, Peter Nunnenkamp and Andreas Waldkirch. 2012. “Spatial effects of foreign direct investment in US states.” Canadian Journal of Economics 45(1):16-40.
Brueckner, Jan K. 2003. “Strategic Interaction Among Governments: An Overview of Theoretical Studies.” International Regional Science Review, 26(2): 175-188.
Buonanno, Paolo, Giacomo Pasini and Paolo Vanin. 2011. “Crime and social sanction.” Papers in Regional Science. 91(1):193-218
Cahill Meagan and Gordon Mulligan. 2007. “Using geographically weighted regression to explore local crime patterns.” Social Science Computer Review 25(2):174–193.
Camp, Roderick Ai. 1992. “General in the Palacio: The Military in Modern Mexico.” New York, Oxford University Press.
Chabat, J. (2002) Mexico´s War on Drugs: No Margin for Maneuver. Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science. 582 pp. 134-148.
Cohen, Jacqueline. and George Tita. 1999. “Diffusion in Homicide: Exploring a General Method for Detecting Spatial Diffusion Processes.” Journal of Quantitative Criminology. 15(4):451-493. Corman, Hope and H. Naci Mocan. 2005. “Carrots, Sticks, and Broken Windows” Journal of Law and Economics. 48(1): 235-266.
Corman, Hope and H. Naci Mocan. 2000. “A Time Series Analysis of Crime, Deterrence, and Drug Abuse in New York City.” The American Economic Review, 90( 3): 584-604.
Cornwall, Christopher and William Trumbull. 1994. “Estimating the Economic Model of Crime with Panel Data.” Review of Economics and Statistics. 76(2): 360-366.
Cover, James Peery and Paul. D. Thistle. 1988. “Time Series, Homicide, and the Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment.” Southern Economic Journal. 54(3):,615-622.
Cracolici, Maria Francesca and Teodora Erika Uberti. 2008. “Geographical Distribution of Crime in Italian Provinces: A Spatial Econometric Analysis.” Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei Working Paper, 11.2008.
Davies, Ronald B. and Helen T. Naughton 2013. “Cooperation in environmental policy: a spatial approach.” International Tax and Public Finance. Published online 27th April 2013. DOI 10.1007/s10797-013-9280-1.
Decker, Scott. H. and Carol W. Kohfeld. 1985. “Crimes, Crime Rates, Arrests, and Arrest Ratios: Implications for Deterrence Theory.” Criminology. 23(3): 437-450.
Dezhbakhsh, Hashem. and Joanna M. Shepherd. 2006. “The deterrent effect of capital punishment: evidence from a `judicial experiment.´” Economic Inquiry 44(3):512-535.
Dezhbakhsh, Hashem, Paul H. Rubin, and Joanna M. Shepherd. 2003. “Does capital punishment have a deterrent effet? New Evidence from Postmoratorium Panel Data.” American Law and Economics Review 5 (2): 344-376.
Di Tella, R., and Ernesto Schargrodsky. 2004. “Do police reduce crime? Estimates using the allocation of police forces after a terrorist attack.” The American Economic Review 94(1): 115-133.
Dills, Angela K., Jeffrey A. Miron and Garrett Summers. 2010. “What do economists know about crime?” in The Economics of Crime: lessons for and from Latin America. Edited by Rafael Di Tella, Sebastian Edwards and Enrnesto Schargrodsky NBER.
Dobkin, Carlos., and Nancy Nicosia. 2009. “The War on Drugs: Methamphetamine, Public Health, and Crime.” American Economic Review 99(1):324-349.
Donohue, John. J., III, and StevenD. Levitt. 2001. “The impact of legalized abortion on crime.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 116(2):379-420.
Donohue, John J., III, and Steven D. Levitt. 2004. “Further evidence that legalized abortion lowered crime: A reply to Joyce.” Journal of Human Resources 39(1): 29-49.
Donohue, John J., III, and Steven D. Levitt. 2008 “Measurement error, legalized abortion, and the decline in crime: A response to Foote and Goetz.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 123 (1): 425-440.
Ehrlich, Isacc. 1975 “The Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment: A Question of Life and Death.” The American Economic Review, 65(3): 397-417. Ehrlich, Isacc. 1977. “Capital Punishment and Deterrence: Some Further Thoughts and Additional Evidence.” Journal of Political Economy 85(4):741-788.
Ehrlich, Isacc. 1996. “Crime, Punishment, and the Market for Offenses.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 10(1):43-67.
Evans, William N. and Emily G. Owens. 2007. “COPS and crime.” Journal of Public Economics 91(1-2): 181-201.
Flores Pérez, Carlos (2009) “Organized Crime and Official Corruption in Mexico. Police and Public Security in Mexico.” Edited by Robert. A. Donnelly and David. A. Shirk. San Diego, Trans-Border Institute.
Foote, Christopher L. and Christopher F. Goetz. 2008. “The impact of legalized abortion on crime: Comment.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 123 (1):1-48.
Formisano Michel. 2002. “Econometría Espacial: Características de la Violencia Homicida en Bogotá (Spatial Econometrics: Characteristics of violent homicides in Bogota).” Working Paper CEDE 2002-10 ISSN 1657-7191 Universidad de los Andes, Colombia.
Fotheringham A., Brunsdon Chris, Charlton Martin. 2002. “Geographically Weighted Regression: The Analysis of Spatially Varying Relationships.” Wiley, Chichester, UK.
Gould, Eric D., Bruce A. Weinberg and Mustard, David B. 2002. “Crime Rates and Local Labor Market Opportunities in the United States: 1979-1997.” Review of Economics and Statistics, 84(1):,45-61.
Grogger, Jeffrey. 1991. “Certainty versus Severity of Punishment.” Economic Inquiry, 29(2): 297-309.
Grogger, Jeffrey and Michael Willis. 2000. “The emergence of crack cocaine and the rise in urban crime rates.” Review of Economics and Statistics 82 (4): 519-29.
Gumprecht, Daniela. 2005. “Spatial Methods in Econometrics: An Application to R&D Spillovers.” Report 26. Department of Statistics and Mathematics. Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien. Research Report Series.
Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI), INEGI, annual. Estadísticas judiciales en materia penal de los Estados Unidos Mexicanos [Crime Statistics of the Mexican United States] Aguascalientes, Mexico. www.inegi.org.mx accessed January 2012. Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI), 1990. 1990 Censo General de Población y Vivienda. [1990 General Census on Population and Housing], Aguascalientes, Mexico. www.inegi.org.mx accessed January 2012.
Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI), 2000. 2000 Censo General de Población y Vivienda. [2000 General Census on Population and Housing], Aguascalientes, Mexico. www.inegi.org.mx accessed January 2012.
Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI), 2010. 2010 Censo General de Población y Vivienda. [2010 General Census on Population and Housing], Aguascalientes, Mexico. www.inegi.org.mx accessed January 2012.
Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI), 1995. 1995 Conteo de Población y Vivienda. [1995 Population and Housing Count], Aguascalientes, Mexico. www.inegi.org.mx accessed January 2012.
Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI), 2005. 2005 Conteo de Población y Vivienda. [2005 Population and Housing Count], Aguascalientes, Mexico. www.inegi.org.mx accessed January 2012.
Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI), 2012 Sistema de Cuentas Nacionales. [National Accounting System. Economic Data Bank]. Aguascalientes, Mexico. www.inegi.org.mx accessed January 2012.
Instituto de Mercadotecnia y Opinión (IMO) (Institute of Marketing and Opinion) `IMO, annual´. Elecciones Estatales.[State Governor Elections] Jalisco, Mexico http:// imocorp.com.mx/accessed March 2012.
Joyce, Ted. 2003. “Did legalized abortion lower crime?” Journal of Human Resources 38(1):1-37.
Joyce, Ted. 2009. “A simple test on abortion and crime.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 91(1): 112-123.
Katz, Lawrence, Steven D. Levitt, and Ellen Shustorovich. 2003. “Prison conditions, capital punishment, and deterrence.” American Law and Economics Review 5(2):318-343.
Kelejian, Harry H. and Ingmar R. Prucha. 1998 “A generalized spatial two-stage least squares procedure for estimating a spatial autoregressive model with autoregressive disturbances.” Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 17(1): 99–121.
Kenny, P. and Mónica Serrano (2012) The Mexican State and Organized Crime: An Unending Story. In Kenny, Peter, Mónica Serrano and Arturo Sotomayor (Eds.), Mexico´s Security Failure. Collapse into Criminal Violence. pp. 29-53. New York, NY Routledge.
Kessler, Daniel P., and Steven D. Levitt. 1999. “Using sentence enhancements to distinguish between deterrence and incapacitation.” Journal of Law and Economics 42 (1, part 2):343-63. Klann, Nils Henrik. 2012 “Incapacitation or Proliferation? A District-level Assessment of Mexico´s War on Drugs.” Unpublished manuscript. University of Goettingen, Germany.
Klick, Jonathan. and Alexander Tabarrok. 2005. “Using terror alert levels to estimate the effect of police on crime.” Journal of Law and Economics 48 (4): 267-80.
Kuziemko, Ilyana., and Steven.D. Levitt. 2004. “An empirical analysis of imprisoning drug offenders.” Journal of Public Economics 88(8): 2043-2066.
Layson, Stephen. K. 1985. “Homicide and Deterrence: A Reexamination of the United States Time-Series Evidence.” Southern Economic Journal, 52(1): 68-89.
Lee, David S. and Justin McCrary. 2005. “Crime, Punishment and Myopia.” NBER Working Paper no. 11491. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economics.
Levitt, Steven D. 2004. “Understanding why crime fell in the 1990s: Four factors that explain the decline and six that do not.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 18 (1):163-90.
Levitt, Steven D.1998. “Juvenile Crime and Punishment.” The Journal of Political Economy, 106(6): 1156-1185.
Levitt, Steven D. 1997. “Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime.” The American Economic Review, 87( 3): 270-290.
Levitt, Steven D. 1996. “The Effect of Prison Population Size on Crime Rates: Evidence from Prison Overcrowding Litigation.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 111 (2):319-52.
Martin, David. 2002. “Spatial Patterns in Residential Burglary: Assessing the Effect of Neighborhood Social Capital.” Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice 18(2):132–146.
McCrary, Justin. 2002. “Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime: Comment.” American Economic Review 92 (4): 1236-1243.
Mencken F.Carsonand Cynthia Barnett.1999. “Murder, nonnegligent manslaughter and spatial autocorrelation in mid-South counties.” Journal of Quantitative Criminology 15(4):407–422.
Miron, Jeffrey A. 1999. “Violence and the U.S. Prohibitions of Drugs and Alcohol.” American Law and Economics Review 1(1): 78-114.
Miron, Jeffrey. A.2001. “Violence, guns, and drugs: Across-country analysis.” Journal of Law and Economics 44 (2, part. 2): 615-34.
Mocan, Naci H., and R. KajGittings. 2003. “Getting Off Death Row: Commuted Sentences and the Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment.” Journal of Law and Economics 46(2): 453-78.
Mocan, Naci H. and R. Kaj. Gittings. 2006. “The impact of incentives on human behavior: Can we make it disappear? The case of the death penalty.” NBER Working Paper no. 12631. Cambridge MA: National Bureau of Economics.
Moloeznik, Marcos Pablo. 2009. “Principales efectos de la militarización del combate al narcotráfico en México.” (The impact of the use of military force against drug trafficking in Mexico) Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities Renglones(61). Jesuit University of Guadalajara, ITESO Mexico.
Moloeznik, Marcos. Pablo. 2009. “The Militarization of Mexican Public Security and the Role of the Military in Mexico. Police and Public Security in Mexico.” Edited by Robert. A. Donnelly and David. A. Shirk. San Diego, Trans-Border Institute.
Moody, Carlisle E., and ThomasB. Marvell. 1996 “Police levels, crime rates, and specification problems.” Criminology 24(3):606-646.
Morris, S. D. (2012) Corruption, Drug Trafficking, and Violence in Mexico, Brown Journal of World Affairs Vol.XVIII, Issue II.
Myers, Samuel L. Jr. 1983. “Estimating the Economic Model of Crime: Punishment vs. Deterrent Effects.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 98(1):157-166.
Plassmann, Florenz., and John. Whitley. 2003. “Confirming `more guns, less crime.´” Stanford Law Review 55(1):1313-1369.
Raphael, Steven and Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf. 2001. “Identifying the Effect of Unemployment on Crime.” Journal of Law and Economics. University of Chicago Press., 44(1):. 259-283.
Rasmussen DW, Benson BL, Sollars DL. 1993. “Spatial competition in illicit drug markets: the consequences of increased drug enforcement”. Review of Regional Studies 123: 219
Ratcliffe, Jerry. 2010. “Crime Mapping: Spatial and Temporal Challenges.” Handbook of Quantitative Criminology. Alex. R. Piquero and David. Weisburd (editors).
Ríos, Viridiana. 2012. “Why did Mexico become so violent? A self-reinforcing violent equilibrium caused by competition and enforcement.” Trends in Organized Crime. August 2012 Springer Verlag.
Saavedra, Luz Amparo. 2000. “A model of welfare competition with evidence from AFDC.” Journal of Urban Economics 47(2): 248-279. 14 years later: The spread of drug crime in Mexico.
SEDENA (2011) National Defense Ministry of Mexico (SEDENA). Answer to request on information regarding the number of military checkpoints carried out by the 24th Military Zone in the state of Morelos, Mexico.
Shepherd, Joanna. M. 2004. “Murders of Passion, Execution Delays, and the Deterrence of Capital Punishment.” Journal of Legal Studies 33(2):283-321.
Shirk, David. A. 2010. Drug Violence in Mexico: Data and Analysis from 2001-2009. San Diego, Trans-Border Institute. Joan B. Kroc School of Peace Studies. University of San Diego.
Skaperdas, S. (2001) The political economy of organized crime: providing protection when the state does not. Economics of Governance 2: 173-202.
Staiger, Douglas and James H. Stock 1997. “Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments.” Econometrica, 65(3):557-586.
Synder, R. and Angelica Duran-Martínez (2009) Does Illegality Breed Violence? Drug Trafficking and State-Sponsored Protection Rackets. Crime, Law, and Social Change 52 (2009):264
Tabarrok, Alexander and Helland Eric. 2009. “Measuring Criminal Spillovers: Evidence from Three Strikes.” Review of Law and Economics 5(1): 251–268.
Toro, María Celia. 1999. “The Internationalization of Police: The DEA in Mexico.” Journal of American History 86(2): 623-640.
Turbiville, Graham H. 1997. “Law Enforcement and the Mexican Armed Forces: The Military Undertakes New Internal Security Missions.” Fort Leavenworth, Foreign Military Studies Office.
United Nations Research Institute for Social Development. 1994. UNRISD Briefing Paper No.2. World Summit For Social Development.
Webster, Cherly Marie, Anthony N. Doob and Franklin E. Zimring. 2006. “Proposition 8 and the Crime Rate in California: The Case of the Disappearing Deterrent Effect.” Crime and Public Policy 5(3): 417-448.
Weisbrot Mark, Stephan Lefebvre, and Joseph Sammut (2014) Did NAFTA Help Mexico.
An Assessment After 20 Years. Center For Economic And Policy Research. Washington DC.
Witte, Ann Dryden. 1980. “Estimating the Economic Model of Crime with Individual Data.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 94(1):59-87.
World Report 2012: Mexico. Human Rights Watch.
World Report 2013: Mexico. Human Rights Watch
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
El contenido publicado en EconoQuantum se encuentra bajo una Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
