Estimando el efecto del clima en la agricultura con el valor productivo de la tierra agrícola
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18381/eq.vi21i2.7344Resumen
Objetivo: el modelo Ricardiano, en el cual el valor de mercado de la tierra se modela como una función del clima, ha sido estimado extensivamente en el contexto de países en desarrollo en donde sus supuestos clave podrían no sostenerse debido a mercados ausentes o incompletos. Este artículo propone unanueva medida de valuación de la tierra que refleja mejor la productividad agrícola en tales contextos: el Valor Productivo de la Tierra Agrícola (VPTA). Metodología: una estrategia empírica de tres pasos se aplica a datos de una encuesta a hogares rurales en México. En el primer paso se estima una función de producción agrícola. En el segundo paso, los parámetros estimados se utilizan para calcular el VPTA. En el tercer paso, el VPTA se utiliza como variable dependiente en una regresión Ricardiana. Resultados: sugieren que el VPTA aumenta con la precipitación y disminuye con el calor extremo. Cuando la regresión Ricardiana se estima utilizando valores de mercado de la tierra, el efecto positivo de la precipitación se subestima y el efecto del calor extremo en la productividad agrícola es nulo. Limitaciones: el sesgo por variables omitidas aún podría influenciar las estimaciones Ricardianas obtenidas con el VPTA. Originalidad: se estima una nueva versión del modelo Ricardiano que no se basa en valores de mercado de la tierra. Conclusiones: el no tomar en cuenta el contexto de mercado de los productores agrícolas, particularmente en países en desarrollo, podría derivar en una subestimación del efecto del cambio climático en la productividad agrícola.Descargas
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