Prospectivas del Mercado de Bioetanol en México

Autores/as

  • Héctor Núñez División de Economía. Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas (CIDE). Aguascalientes, México. Dirección General de Investigación Económica Banco de México. Mérida, México.

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18381/eq.v19i2.7258

Palabras clave:

México, Sector Agrícola, Bioetanol, Gasolina, Políticas para combustibles

Resumen

Objetivo: Analizar los efectos económicos de las políticas de bioetanol en México, donde ha habido varios intentos de introducir biocombustibles en el mercado sin éxito. Metodología: Se desarrolla un modelo de programación matemática de precios endógenos con énfasis en los sectores agrícola y de combustibles, que están integrados en un modelo de equilibrio parcial espacial, multirregional y multiproducto. El bioetanol se puede producir a partir de un cultivo específico y de residuos agroindustriales. Se consideran tres alternativas de política, así como un caso base en el que, como ahora, los combustibles líquidos se derivan todos de fuentes fósiles. La primera alternativa consiste en subsidios a los productores de biocombustibles, la segunda en mandatos de mezcla y la tercera en una combinación de ambas políticas. Resultados: Los resultados muestran algunas pérdidas para los consumidores de combustibles y productos agrícolas, que no se compensan con las ganancias ambientales y de los productores de etanol. Limitaciones e implicaciones: Los datos del año base deberían ser más recientes, pero es muy difícil reunir toda esta cantidad de información para un año más reciente. Como cualquier modelo de equilibrio parcial, el análisis ignora los efectos fuera de los mercados incluidos en el modelo. Originalidad y valor: Modelo desarrollado para esta investigación y es el primer estudio económico sobre el bioetanol en México que llega a un análisis tan detallado. Conclusiones: Es posible desarrollar un mercado de bioetanol en México, pero se requiere alguna redistribución para compensar a los grupos que pierden si se quiere tener estas políticas sostenibles en el largo plazo.

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Publicado

2022-06-30

Cómo citar

Núñez, H. M. (2022). Prospectivas del Mercado de Bioetanol en México. EconoQuantum, 19(2), 21-56. https://doi.org/10.18381/eq.v19i2.7258

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