Effects of the Great Recession on state output in Mexico
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18381/eq.v12i2.4859Palabras clave:
Regional Business Cycles, Great Recession, Spatial RegressionResumen
This paper investigates the effects of a battery of variables on total and sector output drops in the Mexican states during the Great Recession by estimating spatial and cross-section regression models. Our main results can be summarized as follows. First, there is evidence of spatial autocorrelation only in the case of total production and it seems to be negative, which does not support the hypothesis of interstate transmission of the recession. Second, total and sector production falls can be explained by the specialization in the production of tradable (mainly durable) goods. Third, exposure to external shocks plays an important role in the cases of industrial and services production, but not in total output. Fourth, there seems to be that federal fiscal policy has actually been pro-cyclical while state fiscal policies have contributed to mitigate the recession.Descargas
Citas
Agénor, P. R., McDermott, C. J. and Prasad, E. S. (2000). “Macroeconomic fluctuations in developing countries: some stylised facts”. World Bank Economic Review, 14 (2): 251-285.
Anselin, L. (2005). Exploring spatial data with GeoDaTM: A workbook. Department of Geography. University of Illinois: 1-224.
Aregional (2012). Información para decidir. Available online: http://www.aregional. com/
Artis, M. J., Kontolemis, Z. G. and Osborn, D. R. (1997). “Business Cycles for G7 and European Countries”. The Journal of Business, 70 (2): 249-279.
Bems, R., Johnson, R. C. and Yi, K. - M. (2010). “Demand spillovers and the collapse of trade in the global recession”. IMF Economic Review, 58, 295-326.
Berkmen, P., Gelos, G., Rennhack, R. and Walsh, J. P. (2009). “The global financial crisis: explaining cross-country differences in the output impact”. IMF Working Paper WP/09/280: 2-19.
Blanchard, O. (2009). “The crisis: basic mechanisms, and appropriate polices”. IMF Working Paper WP/09/80: 3-22.
Blanchard, O., Das, M. and Faruqee, H. (2010). “The initial impact of the crisis on emerging market countries”. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 41 (1): 263-323.
Castillo, R., Díaz, A. and Fragoso, E. (2004). “Sincronización entre las economías de México y Estados Unidos: el caso del sector manufacturero”. Comercio Exterior, 54 (7): 620-627.
Chiquiar, D. and Ramos, M. (2005). “Trade and Business-Cycle Synchronization: Evidence from Mexican and U.S. Manufacturing Industries”. North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 16 (2): 187-216.
Gutiérrez, E. E., Mejía, P. and Cruz, B. (2005). “Ciclos económicos y sector externo en México. Evidencia de relaciones cambiantes en el tiempo”. Estudios Económicos de Desarrollo Internacional, 5 (1): 65-92.
Herrera, J. (2004). “Business cycles in Mexico and the United States: do they share common movements?” Journal of Applied Economics, VII (2): 303-323.
INEGI (2012). Banco de Información Económica. México. Available online: http:// www.inegi.org.mx/sistemas/bie/?idserPadre=10000330
Imbs, J. (2010). “The first global recession in decades”. IMF Economic Review, 58, 327-354.
IMF (2009). “World Economic Outlook: Crisis and Recovery”. International Monetary Fund, 1-60.
LeSage, J. and Pace, R. K. (2009). Introduction to spatial econometrics. Boca Raton, CRC Press: 20-28.
Levchenko, A. A., Lewis, L. T. and Tesar, L. L. (2010). “The collapse of international trade during the 2008-2009 crisis: in search of the smoking gun”. NBER Working Paper, 16006: 1-54.
Llaudes, R., Salman, F. and Chivakul, M. (2010). “The Impact of the Great Recession on Emerging Markets”. IMF Working Paper, WP/10/237: 2-34.
Mejía, P., Gutiérrez, E. E. and Farías, C. A. (2006a). “La sincronización de los ciclos económicos de México y Estados Unidos”. Investigación Económica, 45 (258): 15-45.
Mejía, P., Gutiérrez, E. E. and Pérez, J. A. (2006b). “Los claroscuros de la sincronización internacional de los ciclos económicos: evidencia sobre la manufactura de México”. Ciencia Ergo Sum, 13 (2): 133-142.
Mejía, P. and Campos, J. (2011). “Are the Mexican States and the United States Business Cycles Synchronized? Evidence from the Manufacturing Production”. Economía Mexicana. Nueva Época, XX (1): 79-112.
Moreno-Brid, J. C. and Ros, J. (2009). Development and Growth in the Mexican Economy. Oxford, Oxford University Press: 1.328
Ponce, A. (2001). “Determinantes de los ciclos económicos en México: ¿Choques agregados o desagregados?” Gaceta de Economía, 6 (12): 117-154.
Ramírez, R. and Castillo, R. A. (2009). “Integración económica en América del Norte: lección de la experiencia de la Unión Europea para el TLCAN”. Estudios Fronterizos, 10 (19): 183-208.
SHCP (2012). Coordinación con entidades federativas. Available online: http://www. shcp.gob.mx/POLITICAFINANCIERA/FINANZASPUBLICAS/Estadisticas_ Oportunas_Finanzas_Publicas/Informacion_mensual/Paginas/coordinacion.aspx
Villagómez, A. and Navarro, L. (2010). Política fiscal contracíclica en México durante la crisis reciente: un análisis preliminar. CIDE Documento de Trabajo 475: 1-31.
Wang, J. (2010). “Durable goods and the collapse of global trade”. Economic Letter, 5 (2): 1-8.
Descargas
Publicado
Cómo citar
Número
Sección
Licencia
El contenido publicado en EconoQuantum se encuentra bajo una Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
