Hierarchical forecasts of Diabetes mortality in Mexico by marginalization and sex to establish resource allocation
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18381/eq.v18i2.7225Keywords:
Diabetes, mortality, hierarchical forecasts, marginalization, resource allocationAbstract
Objective: The mexican population has experimented an astounding rise in type II Diabetes mortality as well as a growing trend for the economic burden in the recent years. The paper’s purpose is to propose an approach to establish a distribution of resource allocation objectively to face the future economic burden. Methodology: Hierarchical forecasts of Diabetes mortality to 2030 by sub-domains of the population are estimated based on marginalization and sex. Results: The forecasts confirm that differences related to sub-domains will be significant. In fact, the rates will increase most notably both in low and high marginalized. Limitations: The hierarchical method just provide point forecast without prediction intervals. Originality: There is not a similar application for Mexican data to do that objectively. Conclusions: The most recommendable budget distribution should be mainly addressed among the low and high levels. Implications of these estimates should support unpostponable health policy in general and for the mentioned sub-domains in particular. Recepción: 25/10/2020 Aceptación: 10/03/2021Downloads
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