Does violent crime scare tourists away? Panel data evidence from 32 mexican states


  • Nicolás Corona Universidad de las Américas Puebla; Departamento de Economía


Palabras clave:

Crimen violento, llegadas de turistas, datos del panel


The scaling up of violent crime in México is often characterized as detrimental to the Mexican tourism industry. However, no econometric study so far challenges this claim with data. This paper therefore empirically analyzes the impact of crime on the arrivals of tourists in México for the period 1990 to 2010. Using a panel data set for the 31 Mexican federal states and México City, I find a negative and significant effect of homicides on the number of tourists arriving. This finding is robust to alternative estimation techniques and samples. Furthermore, when disaggregating the tourist arrival data into local and international, I find that international tourists seem to be more intimidated from homicides than locals.


Los datos de descargas todavía no están disponibles.


Anderson, T. W. & Hsiao Ch. (1982). Formulation and estimation of dynamic models using panel data. Journal of Econometrics 18, 67-82.

Arellano, M. & Bond, S. (1991). Some specification tests for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. Review of Economic Studies 58, 277-298.

Baltagi, B. H. (2008). Econometric analysis of panel data. UK: JohnWiley and Sons Ltd. 4th. Edition.

Becker, G. S. (1968). Crime and punishment: An economic approach. Journal of Political Economy 76, 169-217.

Blundell, R. & Bond, S. (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of Econometrics 87, 115-144.

Bodea, C. & Elbadawi, I. A. (2008). Political violence and economic growth. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, No. 4692, World Bank, Washington, DC.

Braakmann, N. (2012). How do individuals deal with victimization and victimization risk? Longitudinal evidence from México. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 84, 335-344.

Bruno, G. S. F. (2005a). Approximating the bias of the LSDV estimator for dynamic unbalanced panel data models. Economics Letters, 87, 361-366.

Bruno, G. S. F. (2005b). Estimation and inference in dynamic unbalanced panel data models with small number of individuals. Stata Journal 5 (4), 473-500.

Bun, M. J.G. & Kiviet, J. F. (2003). On the diminishing returns of higher order terms in asymptotic expansions of bias. Economics Letters 79, 145-152.

Chen, S., Loayza, N. V. & Reynal-Querol, M. (2008). The aftermath of civil war. The World Bank Economic Review, 22, 63-85.

Clerides, S., Nearchou, P. & Pashardes, P. (2008). Intermediaries as quality assessors: Tour operators in the travel industry. International Journal of Industrial Organization, 26, 372-392.

Collier, P. & Hoeffler, A. (2004). Greed and grievance in civil war. Oxford Economic Papers, 56 (4), 563-595.

Crouch, G. I. (1994). The study of international tourism demand: A review of the findings. Journal of Travel Research, 33, 12-23.

De Albuquerque, K. & McElroy, J. (1999) Tourism and crime in the Caribbean. Annals of Tourism Research, 26 (4), 968-84.

Dell, M. (2011). Trafficking networks and the mexican drug war. Job Market Paper, Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Detotto, C. & Otranto, E. (2010). Does crime affect economic growth?. Kyklos 63, 330-345.

Dreher, A. & Siemers, Lars-H. R. (2009). The nexus between corruption and capital account restrictions. Public Choice, 140, 245-265.

Eilat, Y. & Einav, L. (2004). Determinants of international tourism: a three-dimensional panel data analysis. Applied Economics, 36, 1315-1327.

Ferreira, S. & Harmse, A. (2000). Crime and tourism in South Africa: International tourists´ perception and risk. South African Geographical Journal, 82(2), 80-85.

Gaviria, A. & Pagés, C. (2002). Patterns of crime victimization in Latin American cities. Journal of Development Economics, 67, 181-203.

Hamilton, J. M. (2004). Climate and the destination choice of german tourists. Working Paper, No.21, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei Miliano-FEEM, Italy.

Hsiao, C. (1986). Analysis of panel data. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Kiviet, J. F. (1995). On bias, inconsistency and efficiency of various estimators in dynamic panel data models. Journal of Econometrics, 68, 53-78.

Kiviet, J. F. (1999). Expectation of expansions for estimators in a dynamic panel data model; some results for weakly exogenous regressors. In Analysis of panel data and limited dependent variables. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Kleibergen, F. & Paap, R. (2006). Generalized reduced rank tests using the singular value decomposition. Journal of Econometrics, 127, 97-126.

Le Clercq Ortega, J. A. & Rodríguez Sánchez Lara, G. (2017). Global impunity dimensions. Global impunity index 2017 (GII-2017). México: Universidad de las Américas Puebla.

Levantis, T. & Gani, A. (2000). Tourism demand and the nuisance of crime. International Journal of Social Economics, 27, 959-67.

Li, G., Song, H. & Witt, S. F. (2005) Recent developments in econometric modeling and forecasting. Journal of Travel Research, 44(1), 82-99.

Lim, Ch. (1997a). Review of international tourism demand models. Annals of Tourism Research, 24, 835-849.

Lim, Ch. (1997b). An econometric classification and review of international tourism demand models. Tourism Economics 3 (1), 69-81.

Lim, C. (1999). A meta-analytic review of international tourism demand. Journal of Travel Research, 37 (3), 273-84.

Lochner, L. & Moretti, E. (2004). The effect of education on crime: Evidence from prison inmates, arrests, and self-reports. American Economic Review, 94, 155-189.

Longmire, S. M. & Longmire, J. P. (2008). Redefining terrorism: Why mexican drug trafficking is more than just organized crime. Journal of Strategic Security, 1, 35-52.

Martín, J. L. E, Morales, N. M. & Scarpa, R (2004). Tourism and economic growth in Latin American countries: A panel data approach. Working Paper No.26, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei-FEEM. Miliano, Italy.

Morley, C. L. (1998). A dynamic international demand model. Annals of tourism research, 25, 71-84.

Neumayer, E. (2003). Good policy can lower violent crime: Evidence from cross-national panel of homicide rates, 1980-97. Journal of Peace Research, 40, 619-640.

Neumayer, E. (2004). The impact of political violence on tourism: Dynamic crossnational estimation. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 48, 259-281.

Neumayer, E. & Plümper, T. (2011). Foreign terror on americans. Journal of Peace Research, 48, 3-17.

Nickell, S. (1981). Biases in dynamic models with fixed effects. Econometrica, 49, 1417-1426.

OECD (2017). Tourism policy review of México. París: OECD Studies on Tourism.

Papatheodorou, A. (2001). Why people travel to different places. Annals of Tourism Research, 28, 164-179.

Potrafke, N. (2009). Did globalization restrict partisan politics? An empirical evaluation of social expenditures in panel of OECD countries. Public Choice, 140,105-124.

Ríos, V. (2013). Why did México become so violent? A self-reinforcing violent equilibrium caused by competition and enforcement. Trends in Organized Crime, 16,138-155.

Roodman, D. (2006). How to do xtabond2: An introduction to “difference” and “system” GMM in stata. Working Paper, 103, Center for Global Development.

Witt, S. F. & Witt, Ch. A. (1995). Forecasting tourism demand: A review of empirical research. International Journal of Forecasting, 11, 447-475.

World Travel & Tourism Council: Travel & Tourism Economic Impact 2017

Zepeda, L. G. (2004). Crimen sin castigo. Procuración de justicia y ministerio público en México. México: CIDAC-FCE.



Cómo citar

Corona, N. (2018). Does violent crime scare tourists away? Panel data evidence from 32 mexican states. EconoQuantum, 15(2), 21–48.