Evaluando la efectividad de los controles de capital: La experiencia reciente
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18381/eq.v13i2.6023Palabras clave:
Flujos de capital, controles de capital, evaluación de políticasResumen
Recently, as a result of the new wave of capital inflows, some countries, like Brazil, Korea and Thailand, implemented capital controls. In this paper, we attempt to evaluate their effectiveness using a difference-in-difference specification. Our results are mixed. For Korea and Thailand, for example, capital controls resulted to be effective. The contrary occurs in the case of Brazil. The results also indicate that capital controls affect other economic variables. Their effectiveness, in sum, could be due to the sort and duration of the controls implemented.Descargas
Citas
Abadie, A. (2005). Semiparametric difference in differences estimators, Review of Economic Studies, 72: 1-19.
Ahumada, I. (2008). Evaluación del impacto del programa de proyectos productivos del Consejo de Desarrollo Social. Cuadernos del Consejo de Desarrollo Social, núm. 10, Consejo de Desarrollo Social de Nuevo León.
Baba, C. y Kokenyne, A. (2011). Effectiveness of capital controls in selected emerging markets in the 2000s, IMF WP/12/281.
Balakrishnan, R., Nowak, S., Panth ,S., y Wu, Y. (2012). Surging capital flows to emerging Asia: facts, impacts, and responses. IMF WP/12/130.
Becker, S. e Ichino, A. (2002). Estimation of the average treatment effects based on propensity scores, The Stata Journal, 2(4): 358-377.
Bernal, R. y Peña, X. (2011). Guía práctica para la evaluación de impacto, Ediciones Uniandes, Colombia.
Bertrand, M., Duflo, E. y Mullainathan, S. (2004). How much should we trust difference in differences estimates? The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119(1): 249-275.
Buss, A. (2013). Capital controls and international financial stability. A dynamic general equilibrium in incomplete markets. European Central Bank Working Paper Series, núm. 1578.
Calvo A. y Mendoza, E. (1996). Petty crime and cruel punishment: lessons from the Mexican debacle, American Economic Review, 86(2): 170-175.
Calderón, C. y Kubota, M. (2012). Gross inflows gone wild gross capital inflows, credit booms and crises, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, núm. 6270.
Cameron, A. y Trivedi, K. (2005). Microeconometrics: methods and applications, Cambridge University Press.
Card, D. (1990). The Impact of the Mariel Boatlift on the Miami Labor Market, Industrial and Labor Relations Review, 43(2): 245-257.
Chernick, M. (2008). Bootstrap methods: a guide for practitioners and researchers, John Wiley & Sons, 2a. ed., E.U.
Chowdhury, I. y Keller, L. (2012). Managing large-scale capital inflows: the case of the Czech Republic, Poland and Romania, IMF Working Paper, núm. 138.
Coelho, B. y Gallagher, K. (2010). Capital controls and 21st century financial crises: evidence from Colombia and Thailand, PERI Working Paper, núm. 213, University of Massachusetts Amherts.
Diaconis, P. y Holmes, S. (1994). Gray codes for randomization procedures, Statististical Computation, 4: 287-302.
Edwards, S. (2012). The federal reserve, emerging markets, and capital controls: a high frequency empirical investigation, NBER Working Paper Series, núm. 18587.
Efron, B. y Tibshirani, R. (1993). An introduction to the bootstrap, Chapman & Hall, E.U.
Engel, C. (2015). Macroprudential policy in a world of high capital mobility: policy implications from an academic perspective, NBER Working Paper Series, núm. 20951.
Elliot, L. (2011, 11 de agosto). Global financial crisis: five key stages 2007-2011, The Guardian, http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/aug/07/global-financial-crisiskey-stages
Farhi, E. y Werning, I. (2012). Dealing with the trilemma: optimal capital controls with fixed exchange rates, NBER Working Paper Series, núm. 18199.
Fatum, R. y Hutchinson, M. (2010). Evaluating foreign exchange market intervention: self-selection, counterfactuals and average treatment effects, Journal of International Money and Finance, 29(3): 570-584.
Financial Times. (2012, 3 de diciembre). Capital controls,http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d47c2c3e-3d55-11e2-9e13-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2M2D4TBgX.
Fisher, N. y Hall, P. (1990). On bootstrap hypothesis testing, Australian Journal of Statististics, 32: 177-190.
Flowers, A. (2011). Capital controls gain currency in today’s global economy, EconSouth, 13: 32-35.
Fondo Monetario Internacional. (2012). Datos de las perspectivas de la economía mundial,http://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/index.php
Forbes, K., Fratzscher, M., y Straub, R. (2015). Capital flow management mesasures: what are they good for? Journal of International Economics, por publicar.
Galiani, S., Gertler, P. y Schagrodsky, E. (2005). Water for life: The impact of the privatization of water services on Child Mortality, Journal of Political Economy, 113(1): 83-120.
Grabel, I. (2003). Averting crisis? Assessing measures to manage financial integration in emerging economies, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 27: 317-36.
Gallagher, K. (2011). Regaining control? Capital controls and the global financial crisis, PERI Working Paper, núm. 250, University of Massachusetts Amherst.
Gandolfo, G. (2002). International finance and open-economy macroeconomics, Springer-Verlag, Berlín.
Gertler, P., Martínez, S., Premand, P., Rawlings, L. y Vermersch, C. (2011). La evaluación de impacto en la práctica, World Bank Training Series, Banco Mundial.
Gil, J. (2005). Aplicación del método bootstrap al contraste de hipótesis en la investigación educativa, Revista de Educación, 336: 251-265.
Gruber, J. (2000). Disability Insurance Benefits and Labor supply, The Journal of Political Economy, 108(6): 1162-1183.
Institute of International Finance. (2014, 22 de enero). Capital flows to emerging market economies, IIF Research Note, 1-35.
Jinjarak, Y., Noy, I. y Zheng, H. (2013). Capital controls in Brazil-Stemming a tide with a signal? NBER Working Paper, núm. 19205.
Khandker, S., Koolwal, G. y Samad, H. (2010). Handbook on impact evaluation:
Quantitative methods and practices. Banco Mundial, Washington, D.C.
Kaplan, E. y D. Rodrik. (2002). Did the Malaysian capital controls work?, en Edwards,S. y Frankel, J. (Eds.), Preventing currency crises in emerging markets, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 393-440.
Klein, M. (2012). Capital controls: gates versus walls, NBER Working Paper Series, núm. 18526.
Montoro, C. y Moreno, R. (2011). The use of reserve requirements as a policy instrument in Latin America, BIS Quarterly Review, March, 53-65.
Meyer, B. (1995). Natural and quasi-experiments in economics, en Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 13(2): 151-161.
Obstfeld, M. (1996). Models of currency crises with self-fulfilling features, European Economic Review, 40: 1037-1047.
Ostry, J., Ghosh, A., Habermeier, K., Laeven, L., Chamon, M., Qureshi, M. y Reinhart, D. (2010). Capital inflows: the role of controls, IMF SPN/10/04.
Ostry, J., Ghosh, A., Habermeier, K., Laeven, L., Chamon, M., Qureshi, M. y Kokenyne, A. (2011). Managing capital inflows: what tools to use, IMF SDN/11/06.
Otero, J. (2008). Problemas econométricos de los modelos de diferencias en diferencias, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, 26(1): 363-384.
Powell, A. (2012). The world of forking paths. Latin America and the Caribbean facing global economic risks, IDB, Washington.
Powell, A. y Tavella, P. (2012). Capital inflow surges in emerging economies: how
worried should LAC be? IDB Working Paper Series, núm. 323.
Ravallion, M. y Chen, S. (2005). Hidden impact: Household saving in response to a
poor-area development projects, Journal of Public Economics, 89: 2183-2204.
Ravillion, M. (2008). Evaluating anti-poverty programs, Handbook of Development
Economics, 4: 3787-3846.
Reuters. (2011a, 22 de abril). Update 2-South Korea FX derived trade probe to check short-term debt, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/22/korea-economy-foreignexchange-idUSL3E7FM00320110422.
Reuters. (2011b, 7 de septiembre). S. Korea to levy taxes on foreign buyers of “kimchi” bonds, Recuperado http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/07/korea-economytax-idUSS6E7IE01820110907.
Sau, L. (2003). Banking, information, and the financial instability in Asia, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 25(3): 493-513.
The Economist. (2010, 16 de junio). The won that got away, http://www.economist.
com/blogs/newsbook/2010/06/south_koreas_currency_controls.
Villa, J. (2012). Simplifying the estimation of difference in differences treatment effects with Stata, MPAR Paper, 43943: 1-12.
Weathley, J. (2009). Brazil sets a 2% tax on capital inflows, The Financial Times, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7d275f18-bd05-11de-a7ec-00144feab49a.html.
Wooldridge, J. (2002). Econometric analysis of cross section and panel data, The MIT Press, E.U.
Wooldridge, J. (2010). Introducción a la econometría: un enfoque moderno, Cengage
Learning, 4a. ed., México.
Descargas
Publicado
Cómo citar
Número
Sección
Licencia
El contenido publicado en EconoQuantum se encuentra bajo una Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.