Exportaciones, términos de intercambio y ciclos de crecimiento económico de México y Brasil


  • Carlos Alberto Fraga - Castillo Escuela Superior de Economía del Instituto Politécnico Nacional (IPN)
  • Juan Carlos Moreno - Brid Facultad de Economía de la Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México



Palabras clave:

Economic Grouth in Brazil and Mexico, Balance of Paymentes, Trade barriers, Terms of trade


Six years ago we published a comparative study on the influence of terms of trade, exports and import-income elasticity on the growth rate of real GDP in Mexico and Brazil. Given that these statistical variables have only been registered up until 2002, we felt it appropriate to analyze their contrasting behavior over the last ten years. This was the motivation behind our research and our aim to bring the topic up-to-date. The results indicate firstly that Mexico exports more than Brazil but experiences less growth. Secondly, exports more than terms of trade, are the variable that explain Brazil’s growth. Thirdly, the import-income elasticity estimated through Thirlwall’s model is higher in Mexico than in Brazil.


EIU (Economist Intelligence Unit) (2011), Country Report, Brazil, London, January

EIU (Economist Intelligence Unit) (2013), Country Data, London. http://www.eiu.com/site_info.asp?info_name=EIUcountryData&=entr.

CEPAL. Base de datos CEPALSTAT. http://estadisticas.cepal.org/cepalstat/WEB_CEPALSTAT/ Portada.asp

CEPAL, (2013). Balance Preliminar de la Economía de América Latina.

De la Cruz, J. Koopman, R. and Zhi Wang (2011), “Estimating Foreign Value-Added in Mexico’s Manufacturing Exports”, U.S. International Trade Commission, Office of Economics Working Paper, No. 2011-04A.

Donoso, V. y Martín, V. (2010). “Exportaciones y crecimiento económico: estudios empíricos”, Principios, No. 16, pp. 5-36.

Enders, W. (1995), Applied Econometric Time Series, Jond Wiley and Sons, New York.

Fraga, C. y J.C. Moreno-Brid (2006), “Exportaciones, Términos de Intercambio y Crecimiento Económico de Brasil y México de 1960 a 2002: un Análisis Comparativo”, Problemas del Desarrollo, Vol. 37, No. 146, pp. 80-96.

Harrod, R. (1933), International Economics, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

He, D. and Zhang, W. (2010), “How Dependant Is the Chinese Economy on Exports and in What Sense Has its Growth Been Export-led?”, Journal of Asian Economics 21, pp. 87-104.

Ibarra, C. (2008), “La paradoja del crecimiento lento en México”, Revista de la CEPAL, 95, pp. 83-102.

Ibarra, C. (2011), “México: la maquila, el desajuste monetario y el crecimiento impulsado por las exportaciones”, Revista de la CEPAL 104, pp. 199-215.

Kaldor, N. (1970), “The Case for Regional Policies”, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Volume 17, Issue 3, November, pp 337–348.

Larudee, M. (2012), “Measuring Openness: VADE, Not Trade”, Oxford Economic Studies, Vol. 40, No. 1, March, pp. 119-137.

McCombie, J.S.L. (1993), “Economic Growth, Trade Interlinkages, and the Balance-of- Payments Constraint”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Vol.15, No. 4, Summer, pp. 471-505.

Moreno-Brid J.C. (1998), “On Capital Flows and the Balance-of-Payments Constrained Growth Model” Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Vol.21, No. 2, Winter, pp. 283-297.

Myrdal, G. (1957), Economic Theory and Underdeveloped Regions, University Paperbacks, Methuen, London.

Pérez, E. y J.C. Moreno-Brid (1999), “Terms of Trade, Exports and Economic Growth in Central America: A Long-term View”. Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quartely Review, Vol. 52, pp. 431-449.

Sainz, P. y A. Calcagno (1999), “La economía brasileña ante el Plan Real y su Crisis”, Temas de coyuntura series, No. 4 (LC/L.1232-P) Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), impreso en Naciones Unidas, Santiago de Chile, No. de venta: S.99.II.G.13.

Thirwall, A. P. (1979), “The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences”, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, march, pp. 45-53.

Thirwall, A. P. y N. Hussain (1982), “The Balance of Payments Constraint, Capital Flows and Growth Rate Differences between Developing Countries”. Oxford Economic Papers, 1982, No. 34, pp. 498-510.

Young, A. (1928), “Increasing Returns and Economic Progress”. Economic Journal, Vol. 38, No. 152. (Dec., 1928), pp. 527-542.




Cómo citar

Fraga - Castillo, C. A., & Moreno - Brid, J. C. (2016). Exportaciones, términos de intercambio y ciclos de crecimiento económico de México y Brasil. EconoQuantum, 12(1), 71-95. https://doi.org/10.18381/eq.v12i1.4854