Evolución de la demanda mexicana de importaciones: 1940-2009
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18381/eq.v9i1.135Resumen
El propósito de este trabajo es especificar y estimar una función agregada de importaciones para México y discutir las implicaciones de política de los resultados. La estimación está basada en datos trimestrales de importaciones reales, PIB real y precios relativos durante el período 1940-2009. En el análisis empírico de la demanda agregada de importaciones de México se usan técnicas de corrección de errores. En el estudio encontramos un quiebre estructural después de 1982, lo que nos llevó a estimar dos funciones de demanda de importaciones para dos períodos: 1962q1-1982q4 y 1988q1-2009q4. Nuestros estimados de la función de demanda agregada de importaciones para México sugieren que la demanda de importaciones, en el segundo período, se tornó excesivamente dependiente del PIB y la elasticidad precio de la demanda disminuyó. Esto volvió inefectivas la política fiscal y cambiaria para regular el ciclo económico.Descargas
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